Every graded prop, settled in public
Every player prop on Vault's board gets an A to F grade before kickoff. After the game, each one settles automatically against the official box score and lands here, win or lose. Nothing is removed and nothing is hand-picked afterwards.
By grade
Win rate and return per 1-unit bet at the closing price. "Beat the close" is how often the line or price moved toward Vault's side after the grade was set, the best early sign of a real edge because it doesn't depend on luck.
By week
A and B grades only.
Game lines
Vault's own spread, total and winner calls against the market. Its line matches the market closely, so treat it as context, not an edge.
Where the market is still better
For each stat, how well Vault's win probabilities predicted results compared with the market's own no-vig probabilities (log loss, lower is better). Where the market wins, Vault leans on it more.
Latest settled A and B grades
The line shown is the closing line each pick was settled on.
How this record works
- Grades are set before kickoff from Vault's own projection, judged against the price of that side. Vault grades every prop it can model, including the ones it thinks you should avoid (D and F).
- Results settle from ESPN and nflverse box scores, usually within minutes of the final whistle.
- Return is measured at the closing price for the graded side. Your own price may be better or worse depending on when and where you bet.
- Pushes are left out of win rate and return. Props with no closing price count in the record but not in return.
- This is a model's record, not betting advice. Bet only what you can afford to lose.